Texas Governor's Race Tightens as Abbott Seeks Fourth Term Against Hinojosa
Multiple polls in mid-to-late 2026 show the Texas gubernatorial race between three-term Republican incumbent Greg Abbott and Democratic state Representative Gina Hinojosa narrowing significantly from earlier in the year. Reports differ somewhat on exact polling margins and methodology, but converge on the overall trend of a tightening contest, while some coverage places the race in a broader national context of competitive 2026 gubernatorial and Senate battles.
Texas Governor Greg Abbott, a three-term Republican incumbent, is facing Democratic state Representative Gina Hinojosa in the November 3, 2026 general election, following their nomination in the state's primaries held in spring 2026. Libertarian candidate Pat Dixon is also on the ballot. If Abbott wins a fourth term, he would surpass Rick Perry's record as Texas's longest-serving governor by January 2031. Polling throughout mid-2026 showed the race tightening considerably. A Texas Politics Project/University of Texas poll found Abbott leading Hinojosa 45-40 percent, down from a seven-point gap two months earlier, prompting the Cook Political Report to shift its rating of the race from Solid Republican to Likely Republican. Other polls in this period, including surveys cited by KSST Radio and the Hinojosa campaign, showed even narrower margins, with some describing the contest as a statistical dead heat or virtual tie of one to five points. Abbott's campaign began television advertising with approximately $67 million in cash on hand. The polling narrowing followed a Texas legislative session in which the GOP-leaning congressional redistricting map, pushed by President Trump, passed the state Senate and was sent to Abbott for signature after Texas Senate Democrats, led by Sen. Carol Alvarado, had attempted to delay the bill. As of the most recent reporting, the race remains contested and no additional post-August 2026 polling was included in available reporting, leaving the current state of the race as of the November election unresolved in these sources. The exact size of Abbott's lead is disputed across polls, ranging from one to five points depending on the survey and methodology. Separately, the redistricting fight drew national Democratic attention, including Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, whose relationship with Texas Democratic legislators—who had fled to Illinois in 2025 to block the redistricting effort—became a point of connection between the Illinois and Texas gubernatorial contests; the practical effects of this cross-state dynamic on either race remain unclear from available reporting.
SOURCE COMPARISON
How the coverage differs
Illinois governor's race shifts to Texas
Governor JB Pritzker and Republican challenger Darren Bailey both took their Illinois governor's race campaigning to Dallas, Texas, courting support and campaign cash. Pritzker formed a relationship with Texas Democratic legislators after they fled to Illinois last year to block a GOP congressional redistricting effort.
Read original report ↗Texas gubernatorial race tightens as Abbott advertising begins
A poll from the Texas Politics Project at UT Austin shows Democrat Gina Hinojosa trailing three-term Republican incumbent Greg Abbott by five percentage points, 45-40 percent, down from a seven-point gap two months earlier. The Cook Political Report recently shifted the race from Solid Republican to Likely Republican, and Abbott's campaign began TV advertising with about $67 million cash on hand.
Read original report ↗Mississippi Senate race highlights shifting map as Democrats and Republicans battle for majority
Read original report ↗Texas Governor Primary Election 2026 Live Results
Live results tracked the 2026 Texas Governor primary election as Republican and Democrat votes were counted by candidate and county. James Talarico won the Democrat Senate primary in Texas, according to NBC News projections.
Read original report ↗Six new polls show virtual tie in Texas governor race
Six new polls in the three weeks prior to mid-August 2026 showed a virtual tie in the race between Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa and Republican incumbent Greg Abbott for Texas Governor. The polls came from Texas Public Opinion Research, Fox News, and other outlets.
Read original report ↗Texas 2026 Gubernatorial Poll Tracker
The tracker compiles non-partisan public polling in the Texas gubernatorial race between three-term incumbent Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, Democratic State Representative Gina Hinojosa, and Libertarian Pat Dixon since the conclusion of the Republican primary in late May. The tracker was updated August 13, 2026 with a new Emerson College Polling survey.
Read original report ↗Race for Texas Governor Tightens to Statistical Dead Heat in New Polling
The Texas governor's race has dramatically tightened, with the Texas Pulse survey showing Abbott holding a narrow 46% to 45% edge over Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa, marking a five-point shift toward the Democrat since June. A separate Fox News poll similarly showed a one-point margin, with Abbott at 50% to Hinojosa's 49%.
Read original report ↗Who's Running for Governor of Texas in 2026?
Texas voters have nominated incumbent Republican Governor Greg Abbott and Democratic state Representative Gina Hinojosa for a rematch in the November 3 election. If Abbott wins and completes a fourth term, he will surpass Rick Perry's record as Texas's longest-serving governor by January 2031.
Read original report ↗As competitive Senate map emerges, both Democrats and Republicans see a path to win
More than halfway through the primary elections, the map of competitive Senate races is becoming clearer, though there are still outstanding races to watch.
Read original report ↗Who is running for governor of Maine in 2026?
A crowded field of Democratic candidates is vying to replace term-limited Governor Janet Mills, with Dr. Nirav Shah, Maine's former top public health official, identified as the front-runner in recent polls. Other Democratic candidates include Secretary of State Shenna Bellows and former Senate President Troy Jackson, while Mills previously clashed publicly with President Trump over transgender athletes in sports policy.
Read original report ↗Texas redistricting map pushed by Trump passes Senate, sent to Gov. Abbott
The Texas Senate gave final approval to a GOP-leaning congressional voting map with five new districts favoring Republicans, sending it to Gov. Greg Abbott who was expected to quickly sign it into law. State Sen. Carol Alvarado, leader of the Senate Democratic caucus, had planned to filibuster the bill for hours before the Senate broke for a dinner recess.
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