Iran War Drives Oil Prices Past $100 a Barrel, Sparking Global Inflation Concerns

An ongoing war involving Iran has disrupted global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, with multiple reports citing the Strait of Hormuz as a key chokepoint affected by military strikes and renewed fighting. As a result, oil prices rose past $100 a barrel by late July 2026, a level not referenced in recent years. This price surge coincides with tariff policies under the Trump administration, which some reports say are compounding inflationary pressures in the United States. Multiple outlets report that the oil price increase has had tangible economic effects: Shell's profits reportedly doubled amid the higher oil prices, and U.S. consumers are anticipated to see increased costs for gas, groceries, and back-to-school items. In the United Kingdom, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), a leading thinktank, said incoming Prime Minister Andy Burnham faces a “challenging inheritance” and will confront “very difficult trade-offs” in the autumn budget due to elevated oil prices and inflation. U.S. outlets similarly describe renewed inflation risks and an “affordability crisis” tied to both the oil shock and tariff policy. As of late July 2026, the war in Iran remains ongoing with no reported resolution, and its economic effects are described as unfolding rather than concluded. The precise scope of disruption to oil and LNG supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, including duration and total volume affected, is not detailed in available reporting. Similarly, the specific policy trade-offs facing the UK's autumn budget and the full extent of U.S. consumer price increases remain undetermined, pending further government and economic data.